November 3, 2008

The euro rising against the dollar before the U.S. presidential



The euro was in rise Monday at the beginning of European exchanges, vis-a-vis a dollar trained downwards by the uncertainty of the moneychangers the day before the American presidential election and a shy person return of confidence on the markets. To see the continuation the article

Towards 10:00 GMT (11H00 in Paris), the euro was exchanged to 1,2854 dollar, against 1,2750 dollar Friday evening. ( Finance Information City )

The European currency also increased vis-a-vis the yen to 127,44 yens, against 125,37 Friday evening.

The dollar also advanced him vis-a-vis the Nipponese currency with 99,31 yens against 98,44 yens Friday.

The markets were closed in Tokyo Monday because one bank holiday and will reopen Tuesday.

The investors will follow Tuesday the result of the American presidential election, some judging that a victory of the democrat Barack Obama would be positive for the short-term dollar.

Side of the stock exchange places, which gave the tone to the exchanges the two previous weeks, the markets retained their breath and posted timid rises the day before the American presidential election, on bottom of persistent fears for the worldwide economy.

“Historically, a democratic president with a democratic Congress was always negative for the dollar but a republican president with a democratic Congress also appeared negative for the dollar. In all the cases, the short-term prospects for the dollar will be dull”, explained the analysts of Chartered Standard, pointing persistent concerns on American fiscal imbalance.

This factor would take the step on the movements of repatriations of funds (deleveraging) which had supported the dollar since the summer, according to the analysts.

“The weakness of the dollar reflects at the same time the stabilization of the feeling of aversion to the risk on the markets and the fall in the demand in dollars now that the end of the month (of October) passed”, off commented on Lee Hardman of Bank Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

“Stabilization on the financial markets appeared clearly by the fact that index S&P 500 posted Friday its second consecutive day of profits, for the first time since September” added the analyst.

Monday, the markets will watch for American indicators with the construction costs for September and index ISM of activity in industry for October.

Exceptional measure, the European Central bank (ECB) probably will lower its directing interest rates Thursday, for the second time in one month.

After the American Federal fund, which brought back its principal rate to its low historical of 1%, the ECB should reduce to it his of half-time to 3,25% Thursday in order to fight against the economic deceleration which could degenerate into recession, according to the forecasts published Monday of the European commission, which also counts on a quasi-null growth, of 0,1%, in 2009.

If that is confirmed, it will be about the worst performance of the euro area since its creation.

The Bank of England should also soften the interest rate, of many analysts betting on a whole point of percentage, bringing back the directing rate to 3,5%, which could make fall low delivers it to the new ones.

The British currency gained ground vis-a-vis the dollar with 1,6201 dollar, as vis-a-vis the euro with 79,23 pence for one euro.

The Swiss currency moved back vis-a-vis the euro, to 1,4861 Swiss franc for one euro, but progressed vis-a-vis the dollar to 1,1583 Swiss franc for a dollar.

The ounce of gold was worth 735,38 dollars against 730,75 dollars the day before with the fixing of the evening.

Cours de Monday Course of Friday

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10:00 GMT 22:00 GMT

EUR/USD 1,2854 1,2750

EUR/JPY 127,44 125,37

EUR/CHF 1,4861 1,4745

EUR/GBP 0,7923 0,7933

USD/JPY 99,31 98,44

USD/CHF 1,1583 1,1595

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