“If the fall of the Stock Exchanges originates in fears of an international recession, then the next week will be very bad. The economic calendar is filled with indicators which will be uniformly atrocious”, informed Friday in New York the analyst Carl Weinberg, of High Frequency Economics.( Finance Information City )
The investors will supervise closely the Thursday publication of the first estimate of Gross domestic product (GDP) American to the third quarters, awaited in retreat, which will be preceded by several macro-economic indices in the United States and in Europe.
The markets also await an avalanche of results and perspective of companies American, European and Japanese, in general pessimistic.
In New York, they will be ExxonMobil, the first capitalization of Dow Jones, Kraft Foods or Procter & Gamble. Also announced, the BP oil giants and Shell in London.
In Frankfurt, Lufthansa, Bayer, then Deutsche Bank or Volkswagen. In Paris, Alcatel-Lucent, France Telecom, Michelin, L'Oreal and Pernod Ricard. After a warning on Sony Friday, the season of the quarterly results also opens Monday in Japan.
“By the fear in a pure state” inspires the markets, analyzed Friday in New York Gina Martin, of Wachovia Securities, whereas the large world Stock Exchanges (New York, Tokyo, London, Paris) are repercussions on their level of spring 2003 at the conclusion four weeks of crash.
The American Federal fund should still lower its directing rate Wednesday, currently fixed at 1,5%, and the Japanese government announced Sunday that it was ready to multiply by five, up to 110 billion dollars, the amount to be injected into the banks of the country in difficulty.
But vis-a-vis markets taken of panic which largely were unaware of the massive plans of intervention of the central banks and the American or European supplementary programmes to the banking environments, these measurements are likely to weigh little of weight.
Pointed finger Friday by the minister Frenchwoman of the Economy Christine Lagarde, the hedge funds (speculative funds) did not finish agitating the markets, by selling in mass their titles to recover liquidities in order to free of debts itself, estimated the operators.
In this tactic of the burned ground, the sector of the hedge funds melted of more than 10%, losing 210 billion dollars to the third quarters, with credits on a world level estimated at some 1.720 billion dollars.
“Part of this industry is dying, perhaps half. Therefore, they liquidate their credits in catastrophe, in an animal fear, and without consideration for the economic news”, according to Eric Galiègue, director of the cabinet of Valquant analysis.
Only open Sunday, the Stock Exchanges of oil monarchies of the Gulf sailed in fall. With the opening, Dubai lost 5%, Abu Dhabi 3%, Kuwait 2,4%. The largest local market, Riyadh, which had lost 8,7% Saturday, yielded approximately 2% shortly after its opening.
In waiting of the great top of G20 of Washington on November 15 aiming at reforming the world financial system, concerns continued to be propagated with the real economy in the whole world.
The governor of the Central bank of China stated Sunday that China, without underestimating the impact of the crisis, had an enough strong economy to surmount it, but in the south of the country of the thousands of factories are threatened of short-term closing.
The rich person province of Guangdong, dedicated to the manufactures turned towards export, should lose 9.000 of his 45.000 factories installed in the area of Canton, Dongguan and Shenzhen from here the end of January, according to estimates based on a report/ratio of the Association of the companies with foreign assets of Dongguan.
In Latin America, the Ministers for Finance and the presidents of the central banks of Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay) hold Monday a crisis meeting to face the financial storm.
“Nobody has immediate answer. We do not have the illusion which we will solve all the problems”, informed the chief of the Brazilian diplomacy, Celso Amorim, host of this extraordinary meeting which intervenes after one week black for the Latin-American markets, in particular in Brazil and in Argentina.
In Brazil, the advertisement by the central bank of a new injection of 50 billion dollars to support the real had only little effect, while the Argentinian project to nationalize the private system of retirements worsened the agitation of the markets, to Madrid.
On the other hand, the countries of the Gulf “reaffirmed their confidence in the stability” of the regional financial system, Saturday at the conclusion of an extraordinary meeting in Riyadh.
The six countries of the Cooperation Council of Gulf (CCG) expect that “the economies of the Gulf continue to grow on a good level”, in spite of the fall of the courses of oil, independent source of income, fallen Friday under the 65 dollars the barrel, far from the 147 dollars of last July.
The Kuwaiti government nevertheless formed Sunday an work group special on the financial crisis and announced to prepare a bill “to guarantee the deposits in the local banks”.
GULF Bank, second establishment of loans of Kuwait, had just announced to have undergone “of the losses” in transactions on derivative products and suspended its quotation with the Stock Exchange.
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