Germany was each year since 2003 the principal world exporter but the DIHK explains why the rise of the dollar vis-a-vis the euro will help China to take the first place as of this year, and more only in 2009 as one envisaged it up to now. ( Finance Information City )
“We will lose the first place with the profit of China as of this year, even if it is only of accuracy”, underlined at Reuters the director of the department foreign trade of the DIHK, Axel Nitschke.
He estimates that German exports will exceed this year for the first time the bar of the 1.000 billion euros in value. But Chinese exports will weigh slightly more although in China number of companies working for export start to suffer from the world economic deceleration.
“The explanation, it is the rise of the value of the dollar. Therefore the Chinese exports, made out essentially in the American currency, are worth quite simply more”, added Nitschke.
The two-thirds of German exports are intended for its partners of the European Union, who pay especially in euros. However the European currency fell around 1,25 dollar, against approximately 1,60 in July.
CHINA WILL CONSOLIDATE SA POSITION IN 2009
If this exchange bill makes it possible China to exceed Germany as of this year, the Chinese economy would have will still reinforce its position of number one in 2009.
“The financial crisis will strike our exporters with all its strength only the next year”, continued Nitschke.
By tradition, Germany is specialized in exports of more expensive goods at ends of investment, like the marchines-tool, which often take the form of long-term contracts. Many German exporters can thus still hope for high growth rates this year in spite of the crisis, adds the DIHK.
By contrast, China at low prices exports especially products of great consumption, which it is of the textile or electronics. These goods, continues Nitschke, are the subject of more volatile orders but are likely less to suffer from here a few months that the products from more expensive investments.
Closing last week of Smart Union Group, one of the principal Chinese manufacturers of toys which employed 6.500 people, revealed however the difficulties that certain exporters know in China.
According to the customs, half of the companies of the sector of the toy, especially of the companies of small size, went bankrupt this year. It is the consequence of a natural movement of consolidation, but also of a rise in the costs and especially of the extreme dependence of the industry of the toy to the foreign, American request in particular.
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